Conflict in Ukraine and impact on international transport
The impact of the conflict on international air, sea and rail transport.
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According to recent reports, the sanctions against Russia have resulted in major capacity reductions or even suspension of services by some airlines (Finnair, Air France - KLM and Lufthansa) to Korea, Japan and China, which were routed via Ukraine and Russia. In the import direction to Europe, the service is working but the capacity is decreasing day by day. Russian aircraft of AirBridgeCargo operating in the Volga-Dnepr group were already cleared 3 days ago from the EU and Canada, which joined the closure of their airspace to Russian aircraft. We expect price increases and reduced availability of transport capacity.
Some shippers such as Hapag Lloyd and Maersk Line have suspended service to Russian ports. Other cruisers are expected to join. This is a logical step in response to the sanctions and Russia's partial cut-off from the SWIFT international bank payment system, with Russian traders unable to meet their obligations. If the conflict lasts longer, it may be that shippers will also reduce service to/from the Black Sea, mainly in response to security risks. Shipments will have to be transhipped in Greece or Turkey for subsequent overland transport to countries such as Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria.
Currently, train services on the China-EU and EU-China routes operate without restrictions. Due to the re-routing of train routes via Ukraine to the CHINA - KAZAKHSTAN - RUSSIA - BELARUS - POLAND - CZECH REPUBLIC route, delays due to congestion on this route can be expected. In the wake of sanctions against Russia, the situation may escalate further and directly affect the viability of this route. We continue to monitor the situation.